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The opening round of the MOTUL FIM Superbike World Championship season is traditionally preceded by two days of testing. It was a bruising, testing two days of action at the Phillip Island Grand Prix Circuit with headlines written by high profile crashes on Day 1, with both Toprak Razgatlioglu (ROKiT BMW Motorrad WorldSBK Team) and Jonathan Rea (Pata Maxus Yamaha) crashing; the latter being ruled out of the Australian Round. Elsewhere, it looks like Nicolo Bulega (Aruba.it Racing - Ducati) is the rider to beat in Australia but will the gap close over the weekend?

CHAMPIONS CRASH DOWN UNDER: Razgatlioglu given a warning shot, Rea ruled out

The opening WorldSBK session of the week saw Razgatlioglu crash his BMW M 1000 RR on just his second flying lap. Exiting the Siberia corner the reigning World Champion suffered a violent highside and landed heavily. He overcame this to set fast times during the test, but a warning shot has been fired at him; you won’t have it easy in 2025. Rea hasn’t had it easy in WorldSBK for a few years and the six-time World Champion was reminded of this on Monday morning. A crash at Turn 2 saw the Northern Irishman hit the deck. As the energy transferred through his Yamaha R1 he was hit heavily on his left foot. Four fractures have ruled him out of action for this weekend and likely the opening rounds of the season. 

Two crashes and two brutal reminders of what can happen in WorldSBK. Fortunes can turn in an instant and sometimes you need a little luck on your side. A winter training crash for Razgatlioglu led to a fractured finger. He was able to walk away from Monday’s crash without suffering further damage but he’s feeling worse for wear. Rea’s winter was enough to rebuild his confidence but suddenly his testing crash put him on the back foot once again.

DUCATI ON THE FRONT FOOT: Bulega begins as favourite but he needs to beat Razgatlioglu head-to-head

The front foot belongs to Ducati this weekend. Nicolo Bulega (Aruba.it Racing - Ducati) will start the Australian Round as the favourite. New regulations for 2025 will see the Ducati V4 R unrestricted by rev limits and minor upgrades have given them a package ready to contend. A fast start to the season is critical for Ducati and Bulega was the pacesetter during testing. The Italian, a six-time winner last year, is now the team leader at Ducati and the rider that the Italian manufacturer knows could be their best chance of the title. Can Bulega live up to the billing? That will be the biggest question of the opening rounds. He will need to win head-to-head battles with Razgatlioglu if he’s to have a chance to win the title. This is a tough task for any rider. The gulf in class in the combination of Toprak and BMW was clear last year. Their 13 wins in a row before his Magny-Cours crash was unprecedented but the new season is a new chance to bring the fight to El Turco.

BAUTISTA BOUNCING BACK? How will the double Champion fare?

Alvaro Bautista (Aruba.it Racing - Ducati) will be hoping that he can start this weekend with confidence. Monday’s test was the best he’s felt on the bike in over a year. The regulation changes from last year cost him confidence, injuries robbed him of fitness and feel. Now he has no excuses. As a double WorldSBK Champion he has shown his ability to dominate when the chips fall his way. Six seasons of WorldSBK have also shown another side of Bautista. He has the ability to dominate but also the ability to make mistakes. When the pressure has been on, and he’s been chasing a points deficit in the standings these mistakes have been commonplace. Starting the season with victories at Phillip Island is what he’ll need if he’s to have a chance to win the title. A season that doesn’t live up to title expectations could also signal the end of his racing career. This is the last year of the Ducati V4 R before a new bike is homologated for next year. If Bautista is beaten by Bulega it’s likely that will change the Bologna manufacturer their line-up. The pressure is on Bautista, and he needs to deliver.

WHO ELSE IS IN THE MIX? Iannone and Petrucci quick, Locatelli rapid on The Island, Alex Lowes' with a chance?

They won’t be the only Ducati’s at the front. Andrea Iannone and Danilo Petrucci have been fast and consistent and look primed to battle for podiums. Beyond the Ducati riders it’s hard to see who the challengers will be. Yamaha’s Andrea Locatelli (Pata Maxus Yamaha) is always strong at Phillip Island. Alex Lowes (bimota by Kawasaki Racing Team) was a two time winner here twelve months ago. This could be Loka’s best chance of a good result for a while. Bimota and Lowes have looked good during testing but need to find straight line speed. 

FINAL THOUGHTS: who will apply the pressure and who will be under pressure?

In racing you’re either under pressure or you're applying pressure. Last year Toprak was the rider applying pressure. Now he’s under pressure to show he’s fit and ready for the start of the season. If he can’t deliver, Bulega looks like being the man to step up to apply the pressure...but we won’t know for sure until the lights go out on Saturday to start the season.

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